Crop predictions

The Illinois field office of NASS this week released the USDA’s May Crop Report. Highlights of the report include:
ILLINOIS
The Illinois winter wheat crop is expected to yield 63 bushels per acre, based on conditions as of May 1, even with last year’s yield. If this yield is realized, total production would be 50.4 million bushels, 24 percent more than last year’s production. Farmers seeded 830,000 acres of winter wheat last fall and expect to harvest 800,000 acres for grain. This compares to 660,000 acres seeded and 645,000 acres harvested in 2012. As of April 28, the condition of the crop was 11 percent excellent, 57 percent good, 25 percent fair, 6 percent poor and 1 percent very poor.
Hay stocks in Illinois on May 1 were at 155,000 tons, down 48 percent from a year ago. This coincides with the historically low 2012 hay production of 1.49 million tons. Both of these are the lowest levels since records started being kept for these statistics.
UNITED STATES
U.S. Winter wheat: Production is forecast at 1.49 billion bushels, down 10 percent from 2012. As of May 1, the United States' yield is forecast at 45.4 bushels per acre, down 1.8 bushels from last year. Expected grain area is forecast at 32.7 million acres, down 6 percent from last year. Hard Red Winter (HRW) harvested acreage is down about 14 percent from the previous year. Soft Red Winter (SRW) harvested acreage is expected to be up 21 percent from last year. As of April 28, 33 percent of the winter wheat crop in the 18 major producing states was rated in good to excellent condition, 31 percentage points below the same week in 2012. Nationally, 14 percent of the winter wheat crop was headed by April 28, 15 percentage points behind the five-year average pace.
Cooler than normal spring temperatures, coupled with higher-than-normal precipitation in the Corn Belt states of Illinois, Indiana, Missouri and Ohio hampered crop development. However, as of April 28, the winter wheat crop in the SRW growing states was in mostly good condition.
U.S Hay stocks on farms: All hay stored on United States' farms on May 1 totaled 14.2 million tons, down 34 percent from a year ago. This is the lowest May 1 stocks level on record. Disappearance from December 1, 2012 – May 1, 2013 totaled 62.4 million tons, compared with 69.3 million tons for the same period a year earlier.
Record-low May 1 hay stocks levels were also established in Connecticut, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Vermont and Wisconsin.
With the exception of California, Colorado, Georgia, Louisiana, Maryland, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and South Carolina, hay stocks as a percent of production decreased from last year Nationwide. Last year’s historic drought led to a substantial decrease in hay production, and therefore beginning stocks for many States. In many areas, the limited availability of native feedstuffs forced producers to feed their herds earlier than normal. Additionally, a cold, wet spring has limited pasture growth causing prolonged dependence on supplemental roughage and feedstuffs in portions of the Midwest.
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